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  • Keep Some Dry Powder—and Keep Your Sanity

    By Denaliguide

    Well now, dear ones. What I see playing out between the U.S. Treasury and China looks something like this:

    “You don’t buy oil, and we won’t buy gold.”

    That is my reading of the situation—a suspected arrangement, rather than a proven one. But if these pressures are weighing on your patience, fear not! I don’t believe they can last forever.

    Right now, this flip-flop appears to be holding down the 5-, 10-, and 30-year Treasury yields. Meanwhile, the dollar continues to feel the pressure of efforts to support the bond market.

    My view? The bonds will be supported while pressure for a cheaper dollar continues, until we reach a burnout point. Can I predict the timing? No.

    Only this I say: “It is in front of us, not behind us.”

    Juniors on My Radar

    Some of these juniors are in the most interesting positions I’ve seen in a while. Depending on your interests and appetite for risk, they may warrant a closer look at current levels.

    Here is my watchlist, with two new additions at the end:

    • Silver X Mining — AGX.V: Peru.
    • Silver One — SVE.V: On my silver watchlist.
    • Hercules Metals — BIG.V: It has had a big pop, but its jurisdiction remains part of the attraction for me.
    • Borealis Mining — BOGO.V: It has bounced back from a heavy downward hit and is now on my hit parade of juniors with upside potential.
    • Amex Exploration — AMX.V: Developing the Perron deposit in Quebec, near the Ontario border.
    • Hemlo Mining — HMMC.TO: Following Barrick’s sale of Hemlo, I like what I’m seeing from the new owners.
    • Talisker Resources — TSK.TO: Its work at the Bralorne complex and Mustang mine in British Columbia keeps it on my radar.

    New Addition: Starr Peak Mining

    Starr Peak Mining — STE.V

    Part of Starr’s attraction is its acquisition, in 2020, of approximately 1,420 hectares of prospective ground adjacent to Amex’s Perron property. That is roughly 14 square kilometres, or a little more than five square miles.

    The properties lie along the Normétal fault, in the area of the former Normétal mine.

    But here is the punchline: relative strength.

    Despite the market pressures I’ve described, Starr has not declined appreciably in the way I’ve seen many other juniors—and some majors—decline. That resilience interests me.

    Promising ground is one thing. A stock holding its own under pressure is another. Together, they earn Starr a place on my list.

    New Addition: Cabral Gold

    Cabral Gold — CBR.V

    Cabral’s reported gold pour and sale during September put it on my radar as another junior moving into production.

    The stock’s trend looks steady to me, and it appears to be in reasonably good shape. I’m comfortable with its Brazilian jurisdiction, and the company continues to act like its management knows what it’s doing.

    A definite pick for my watchlist.

    The Timing? That’s the Hard Part.

    That’s the good news.

    The bad news is that I have no firm handle on when this foolishness—domestic or global—might end.

    I’m loath to say, “The midterm elections.” That answer is both nebulous and slippery, given how ruthlessly politicians can act and how quickly they can pull another trick.

    Reports of U.S. pressure on NATO allies to commit diesel reserves to support supply only add to my frustration. Ugh!

    So keep some dry powder. Stay alert. Position yourself thoughtfully.

    And go fishing if that’s what it takes to keep your sanity.

    About Those Gaps

    Speaking of sanity—and things you might think are crazy—I’m sticking with my old axiom:

    Gaps fill.

    That is a conviction I use in reading charts, not a guarantee. I still expect the gap between August 29 and September 2, 2025, to fill, however briefly or swiftly.

    I’ve waited years for gaps before. One dating from 2012 took roughly six years. So let this one remain an object of interest and conjecture.

    Those of you who have been with me long enough may remember WHALE ISLAND: my name for that stretch when the bullish percentage of gold stocks sat at zero for 14 weeks and GDX bottomed around $12.40.

    Then there was the “Straits of Hell” gap, which remained open from 2015 to 2019 before GDX vaulted into the $30s. My projected future price was $61—a summit it has since reached, by my reckoning.

    That history is why I keep watching the gap around gold at $3,454.

    With gold having traded down into the $3,900-and-change area, I’m not ruling out a sharp stab lower toward that gap.

    Timing remains the mystery. The possibility remains on my chart.

    Till then, keep your eyes open, your powder dry, and your sense of humour intact.

    BEST,
    DG

  • The Clearest Possibility: Invisible Hands in the Market?

    © Nick Migliaccio 2026 — AKA Denaliguide
    September 29, 2026

    Markets are influenced by people with power—and those people have interests. When familiar relationships between oil, gold, and government bonds begin to shift, I start asking questions.

    My suspicion is that some of what we are seeing reflects intervention behind the scenes. That is a theory, not something I can prove.

    Could there be an understanding between major players: help keep oil prices down, and we will help keep gold affordable for those accumulating it? It is a possibility worth considering. Circumstantial evidence, however, does not establish that such an agreement exists.

    Why would cheaper oil matter so much? Beyond the political appeal of lower fuel prices, energy costs affect inflation pressures. Those pressures matter to bond markets—and higher borrowing costs put further strain on government finances.

    That is why I watch the 10-year Treasury yield so closely. It offers a window into the cost of financing government debt and the confidence of those lending the money.

    The larger question is how far policymakers will go to protect the bond market. My view is that, if forced into a difficult choice, they will prioritize government funding—even at the expense of the dollar’s purchasing power.

    A weaker dollar might help some American manufacturers compete, but it could also make imports more expensive and squeeze household budgets.

    Money can be created. Energy cannot be printed.

    I believe those with the means to influence markets will use them when their interests are at stake. Power deserves scrutiny, especially when decisions made behind closed doors carry consequences for everyone else.

    Watch the yields. Question the explanations. Keep speculation separate from evidence.

    This is market commentary and personal opinion, not financial advice.

  • The Kamikaze Lemonade Approach

    Denaliguide Letter — September 15, 2026
    © Nick Migliaccio

    Welcome back from the lunar cycle from hell.

    The “crazy moon” begins on September 18 and runs until the 26th. What a difference six months can make!

    Locked In—or Locked Out?

    Markets often settle into trading ranges, bouncing between support on the downside and resistance on the upside.

    That seemed to be the correct assessment when this grief began. By February, however, we knew something else was happening. Margin increases, portfolio rebalancing and other unnatural forces had disrupted the usual pattern.

    Small and cold comfort, eh?

    The dilemma is familiar:

    Do you take your profits now and risk missing the next great run that commentators keep predicting?

    Or do you continue holding and risk watching those profits disappear as prices move deeper into correction?

    Those are the horns of the dilemma.

    Return to the Scene of the Crime

    Perhaps we should approach the market like homicide detectives assessing a crime scene. It is a well-established idea that criminals sometimes revisit the scene of their crime.

    So, what does that have to do with investing?

    When I ran a trapline, my sets stood like silent sentries at the junction of two trails. They waited there to capture the quarry—perhaps profits, in this case—without requiring me to stand watch every minute.

    Look back to where the latest market run began. Note the price from which it emerged. That price may help you identify where a correction could finally stop.

    Suppose you anticipate that a stock might bottom at $5. You could place a limit buy order at $6 rather than trying to catch the exact bottom. It has worked before. You decide whether it suits your strategy and risk tolerance.

    I think of this as a fire-and-forget order—good till cancelled, or perhaps left open for 30 days. If it fails to execute, you can cancel the order and reconsider whether to buy the stock near that price.

    I recently chose a very aggressive entry price for one of my limit orders. The stock never reached it, so the order failed.

    I fear not.

    It may still get there, or it may not. That is why this is hunting—not shopping.

    There is nothing especially complex or sophisticated about it.

    What Is Plan B?

    During the long years of price manipulation and suppression in precious metals, I used what I call the Kamikaze move several times.

    At the end of a long and discouraging decline, I looked for stocks that appeared to belong in the junkyard rather than on an exchange. I selected one or two wrecks, bought them near cyclical lows, held them through the recovery and took the profit when it arrived.

    Basically, when the market gives you lemons, make lemonade.

    This is my Kamikaze Lemonade approach.

    It is speculative, and it is certainly not for everyone. Junior mining stocks can be volatile, illiquid and capable of producing substantial losses. But several silver juniors are now showing what I consider encouraging resistance to further declines, along with possible upside price objectives.

    I also consider their jurisdictions carefully. A promising deposit is not enough if the political or regulatory environment is hostile.

    Silver Juniors on My List

    My list includes:

    • Silver X Mining — AGX.V
    • Silver One Resources — SVE.V
    • Hercules Metals — BIG.V

    Hercules has already experienced a significant price increase, but it continues to operate in what I consider a comparatively safe jurisdiction.

    Your list may be different—and it should reflect your own research.

    Gold Remains the Main Event

    The centre of gravity in my portfolio remains promising gold juniors.

    I am interested in companies with substantial deposits, active production or meaningful bulk-sampling programs.

    Gold remains the main event because every institutional entity grasping for power understands that it needs gold.

    Among the companies currently on my radar are:

    Borealis Mining — BOGO.V

    Borealis bounced back after taking a heavy downward hit. It has now returned to my Hit Parade of juniors with potential upside.

    Amex Exploration — AMX.V

    Amex is developing its Perron gold project near the Quebec–Ontario border.

    Hemlo Mining Corp. — HMMC.TO

    Barrick sold the Hemlo operation, and the new owners appear to be making progress. I like what I see.

    Talisker Resources — TSK.TO

    Talisker is working in British Columbia, rejuvenating the historic Bralorne complex and advancing the Mustang Mine.

    Those were the entertaining, relatively straightforward choices.

    Now for the brain teaser.

    The Starr Peak Question

    Starr Peak Mining — STE.V acquired approximately 1,420 hectares next to the Perron property being developed by Amex.

    For the rest of us, that is about 14 square kilometres.

    Both Starr Peak and Amex sit along the Normétal Fault in a historically active mining district. Starr Peak’s property also includes the site of a former mine.

    Whenever I fear a trade, it often seems to turn out well.

    Rather than waiting for STE.V to go viral and disappear into the stratosphere, I took a position comparable to my original entry into AMX.V.

    Now we wait to see how it goes.

    Each of these companies passes my personal sniff test, and I like what I see in their charts. That does not mean they are guaranteed winners. It simply means they have earned a place on my watchlist—and, in some cases, in my portfolio.

    There you have it.

    GH

    Important disclaimer: The Denaliguide Letter and Bulletin is presented for educational and entertainment purposes only. Nothing in this letter is personalized financial or investment advice. Please conduct your own due-diligence investigation and consult a qualified financial professional before giving your money to anyone or making an investment decision. Junior mining and exploration stocks are highly speculative, and losses are part of this market. Exercise care. Denaliguide and/or associates may hold long or short positions in any of the securities discussed.

  • Real Wealth in a Noisy World

    This letter serves as a prologue to the report that follows.

    Let me begin with the first short answer.

    I stay out of the general market. I am not interested in chasing artificial intelligence or technology stocks simply because they are receiving attention.

    Instead, I position myself in companies connected to appreciating, tangible assets—particularly metals.

    I do not day trade. I do not swing trade. I position assets for the longer term.

    And I try not to make decisions from fear. If I run every time the headlines become frightening, I am done before I begin.

    The reasons for this approach seem apparent to me.

    The Second Short Answer

    Real wealth is tangible.

    If you can hold it, you can own it. If you cannot, you may want to ask what it is that you actually possess.

    The value of fiat currency is variable. A dollar does not purchase today what it purchased ten, twenty, or fifty years ago. Gold, on the other hand, has served as a measure and store of value across generations.

    Real wealth is connected to physical assets: land, metals, energy, food, materials, and the resources people continue to need.

    The stated value of these assets may rise and fall, but the assets themselves remain real.

    Inflation will continue to alter prices over time. Debt will continue to grow. Currency values will continue to shift. In the middle of all this, your ability to remain sane, observant, and aware of the world affecting you may be your most valuable quality.

    Looking Beyond Today’s Headlines

    Now let us consider the current news.

    Much of what we read today is remarkably similar to what we read last week. Stories are rewritten, recycled, and presented again with a new headline.

    There is war—but where, and when? What has actually changed? What is new information, and what is simply another version of an old story?

    News about a company’s production may be meaningful. If a mine increases production, discovers a new deposit, reduces its costs, or encounters a serious operational problem, that information may affect the real value of the company.

    But if the news is only about a stock’s value in dollars, we should ask another question: which dollar?

    Is that value being measured in last year’s dollar or this year’s dollar? What could each of those dollars purchase in wheat, copper, fuel, gold, or another usable commodity?

    How does the quoted value of your stock compare with the value of the physical resources behind it?

    And perhaps most importantly:

    Who benefits from the way this information is presented?

    Question What You Have Been Taught?

    I know this way of looking at markets is unorthodox. It is not necessarily what we have been taught.

    Most of us have been trained to accept the commonly quoted numbers, follow the general market, and trust the accepted financial story. But perhaps we occasionally need to step outside those ingrained lessons.

    You do not need to be neurodivergent or unusually gifted to question the story.

    You simply need to be observant.

    Watch what is being produced. Pay attention to physical assets. Learn how currency values change. Ask who benefits from a particular message—and who might benefit from your fear.

    After all, it is your money.

    There is little point in endless talk or reacting to every headline.

    Observe.

    Learn.

    Act.

    Best,

    DG — Denaliguide

    This article reflects the writer’s personal perspective and is provided for general information, not individualized financial advice. Investments in metals, mining companies, and other assets involve risk.

  • DENALIGUIDE LETTER — JULY 2026

    © Nick Migliaccio

    Locked In—or Locked Out?

    Welcome back from the lunar cycle from hell—the “crazy moon”—which finally ends on July 29.

    What a difference six months can make. We have travelled from all-time highs into a hellish correction, helped along by some decidedly unnatural acts.

    So, are we locked in or locked out?

    Markets often settle into trading ranges, bouncing between support on the downside and resistance on the upside. When this grief began, that appeared to be a reasonable assessment.

    By February, however, it became clear that something else was happening. Margin increases, portfolio rebalancing, and other outside pressures were helping to drive the correction.

    Small comfort, perhaps—but it brings us to the familiar investor’s dilemma.

    Do you take your profits now and risk missing the next major run that so many commentators are predicting?

    Or do you continue to hold and risk watching those profits disappear as prices move deeper into correction?

    Those are the horns of the dilemma.

    Revisiting the Scene of the Crime

    Let us approach this like homicide detectives examining the scene of a crime.

    An old piece of detective lore tells us that criminals often revisit the scene of the crime they committed.

    Could the same idea apply to financial prices?

    Before going further, remember that these prices are being quoted in fiat currency—which, in my opinion, has roughly the intrinsic value of toilet tissue.

    And yes, that matters.

    Over the past twelve months, many investors have—or should have—profits in precious metals and related sector stocks. Following the scorching run to all-time highs, it may be useful to identify exactly where the steady uptrend became a true barn burner.

    Why is that important?

    Because the correction from hell may eventually return to a similar price level—the place from which the final explosive rise began.

    In other words, the market may return to the scene of the crime.

    Setting the Trapline

    I once ran a trapline. My sets stood as silent sentries at trail junctions, waiting to capture the quarry without requiring me to stand there watching every minute.

    We may be able to use a similar approach when looking for profits.

    Study the chart and identify the price level from which the strongest part of the run emerged. The correction may end somewhere near that point, returning to whence it came.

    Once you have identified that level, you could consider placing a limit order slightly above the price where you believe the correction may stop.

    For example, suppose you believe the bottom could be around $5. There may be nothing wrong with placing a limit order at $6 rather than trying to capture the exact bottom.

    It has worked before.

    You place the order—or you do not.

    This can be treated as a fire-and-forget order, left open as Good Till Cancelled, or for thirty days, depending on the rules of your brokerage.

    Should the order fail to fill, cancel it and reconsider whether you still wish to purchase the stock near that price.

    There is nothing especially complex or sophisticated about this strategy. Your trapline simply sits ready while you get on with the rest of your life.

    Plan B: Kamikaze Lemonade

    What happens if the first plan does not work?

    Inspired by the so-called “Divine Wind” pilots of the Second World War, I call the alternative the Kamikaze move.

    During the long years of price manipulation and suppression in precious metals, I used this approach several times.

    After a long and discouraging decline in metal prices, I looked for companies whose stocks appeared as though they belonged in the junkyard rather than on an exchange.

    The companies continued to operate and make money, yet their stock prices rarely moved higher for very long.

    I selected one or two of these wrecks, bought them near cyclical lows, held them through the misery, and took the profit when it eventually arrived.

    It seemed crazy to buy such losers at the time—but the supposedly high-class stocks were not performing much better.

    My present weighting is primarily in junior gold miners. Some are good, and some are bad. Before the correction, of course, they were all “great.”

    Should my main stock fail to reach the price of my limit order, and should I decide to branch out, I am watching six junior silver and mining-related companies.

    Over the past six months, they have fallen by an average of approximately 60% from their peaks. They operate in jurisdictions I consider acceptable, and they possess promising deposits, production potential, exploration prospects, or the possibility of becoming acquisition targets.

    When the market gives you lemons, make lemonade.

    This is my Kamikaze Lemonade approach.

    The Watchlist

    Find the date when the major rise began in the stock you are studying. Identify the price level and proceed according to your own judgment.

    Funds committed to an open order may remain unavailable until the order is filled, cancelled, or expires. That is the primary disadvantage I see.

    The advantage is that you may no longer need to agonize daily over the exact location of the market bottom. Your trapline is already set.

    Should that strategy fail, you may choose to examine one of the devastated junior companies—many of them silver-focused—and deploy only the portion of your funds that you are genuinely prepared to risk.

    Here is my current list. Yours may be entirely different:

    • Aftermath Silver Ltd. — AAG.V
    • Silver X Mining Corp. — AGX.V
    • Silver One Resources Inc. — SVE.V
    • Hercules Metals Corp. — BIG.V
    • Borealis Mining Company Ltd. — BOGO.V
    • Empress Royalty Corp. — EMPR.V

    Each company passes my personal sniff test and, at the time of writing, has what I consider an acceptable—or better—chart.

    Do your own research, set your own traps, and never risk funds you cannot afford to lose.

    Important Disclaimer

    The Denaliguide Letter and Bulletin is presented for educational and entertainment purposes only. Nothing contained in this publication should be considered personalized investment, legal, tax, or financial advice.

    Readers are responsible for conducting their own due-diligence investigations before investing or giving money to any person or organization. Investing involves risk, and losses are an unavoidable possibility.

    Denaliguide and/or its associates may hold long or short positions in any securities mentioned in this publication.

  • BALL OF CONFUSION

    Denaliguide – May 2026

    Well, another fun day, week, and month ahead of us.

    “Ball of Confusion” seems like the perfect title.

    Another peace plan. Another attack during negotiations. The high-tech and semiconductor sectors have gone absolutely ballistic. Some charts are beginning to look less like investments and more like launch trajectories.

    So let me ask you:

    Does this market feel like we’re down in the riverbed, slogging through mud and rocks?

    Or does it feel like we’re standing so high on the mountain that we’re running out of oxygen and about to hit the wall?

    Maybe it’s not lack of oxygen at all. Maybe it’s Pink Floyd’s Another Brick in the Wall.

    Either way, a wall is a wall.

    The oxygen in this market is money. Specifically, retail money chasing the latest IPOs and momentum trades.

    One very sage observer recently suggested that this Ball of Confusion market may remain completely whacko until the long-awaited SpaceX IPO is completed. The reasoning is simple. Depending on valuation assumptions, SpaceX is now being discussed in ranges approaching $1.75 trillion.

    Any significant crack in the markets before, during, or after such a massive offering could trigger moves of an entirely different order of magnitude.

    This past weekend was a three-day holiday, and I was surprised the TACO script wasn’t fully engaged. Frankly, it may be healthier to shut off the news feeds, ignore the text alerts, skip the videos, and simply watch the markets.

    Watch the DJIA.

    Watch the Ten-Year Treasury.

    Watch what money is actually doing.

    Beyond the Tekkies

    While everyone is chasing AI, semiconductors, and the latest technology darling, a few other sectors have quietly started showing signs of life.

    A couple of Mexican silver plays suddenly looked as if they had flashbulbs attached to them. Personally, I still consider Mexico a suspect jurisdiction until proven otherwise.

    Instead, my attention has been drawn toward:

    • Goliath Resources (GOT.V)
    • Hydro One (H.TO)
    • High Liner Foods (HLF.TO)
    • Jamieson Wellness (JWEL.TO)

    Not exactly the stocks dominating social media headlines.

    Which may be precisely the point.

    The Warning Sign Nobody Wants to Discuss

    What could become genuinely concerning is that many equal-weighted indexes remain relatively flat.

    The market averages look healthy because a handful of mega-cap names continue pulling the wagon. Remove those few leaders and the picture becomes considerably less impressive.

    Meanwhile, some of the models that normally moderate parabolic moves are beginning to roll over.

    The IPOs are the gasoline.

    The weakening breadth is the match.

    That combination deserves attention.

    The Camel and the Straw

    The question may no longer be if something breaks.

    The question is when.

    Fundamentally, a case can be made that portions of the U.S. economy resemble a “dead man walking.”

    Friction continues to build throughout the system.

    Consumers are feeling it.

    A recent brake service on my vehicle came in roughly 30% above estimate because of supply-chain complications affecting the garage. On a $1,000 estimate, that’s a very visible overrun.

    You notice it.

    Unlike the gradual increase in the price of carrots, coffee, or Nutella.

    The chickens eventually come home to roost. Unfortunately, they often arrive at the worst possible time—perhaps shortly after one of these highly anticipated IPOs fails to meet expectations.

    What Separates Success from Failure?

    Three things:

    1. DYODD

    Do Your Own Due Diligence.

    No one cares more about your money than you do.

    2. Patience

    Wait for the indicators to align.

    Not some of them.

    All of them.

    3. Decisiveness

    Once your criteria are met, act.

    Not emotionally.

    Not impulsively.

    Decisively.

    Managing Your Dry Powder

    Decide which sectors you want exposure to.

    Decide which jurisdictions you trust.

    Then assess your dry powder.

    If your portfolio is properly positioned, cash reserves should generally remain below one-third of total holdings.

    For example:

    • Portfolio: $10,000
    • Dry Powder: Maximum $3,000

    One possible approach:

    • One-third retained as cash
    • One-third allocated to your highest-conviction opportunity
    • One-third allocated to your second choice

    If there isn’t a clear second choice, keep the remaining capital available for additional deployment into your primary position when the opportunity presents itself.

    Without patience, gains are often limited.

    Chase momentum blindly, and eventually you’ll get burned.

    Remember:

    With predators, if you run, you’re done.

    Great Googa Mooga!

    Well, what do you know?

    It’s Friday.

    The TACO effect appears to be fully operational once again, boosting the high-flyers, the Nifty Fifty, AI names, and virtually anything with a technology label attached to it.

    Not much help for the rest of us.

    Meanwhile:

    • GOT.V
    • H.TO
    • HLF.TO
    • JWEL.TO

    continue doing what stocks used to do.

    Quietly moving higher.

    Imagine that.

    Stocks Worth Watching

    While scanning the Canadiansphere, I found several names showing positive price appreciation that may actually have underlying reasons supporting the move.

    As always, investigate thoroughly before committing capital.

    Current watch list:

    • NAU.V
    • ALDE.V
    • CEI.V
    • MTA.V
    • AGMR.TO
    • GG.V
    • CFW.TO
    • HNU.TO
    • ARK.V
    • NKE.TO
    • AGAG.V

    A reasonable spread across multiple sectors.

    Pick the stories you understand.

    Pick the jurisdictions you trust.

    Accept that losses are part of speculation.

    And prepare accordingly.

    Final Thought

    Markets are rarely rational.

    Sometimes they are fearful.

    Sometimes they are euphoric.

    Right now they feel like a Ball of Confusion.

    Stay patient.

    Stay disciplined.

    Keep some dry powder.

    In a Ball of Confusion, the goal isn’t to predict every bounce—it’s to avoid becoming part of the bounce.

    Stay patient.

    Stay decisive.

    DYODD.

    — Denaliguide

    Disclosure: The securities mentioned may be acquired, held, sold, or sold short by Denaliguide Summit Associates. All investments involve risk. Never invest more than you are willing to lose. This article is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.

  • And the second shoe will drop?

    This video is based on a casual conversation between Denaliguide and Granny Doll.

    Please like and comment with your concerns or questions.

  • Market Opportunities, Market Tricks, and Knowing Your Temperament

    By DenaliGuide

    Every now and then it helps to step back and look at markets with a bit of perspective. After many years watching cycles come and go, I’ve learned that opportunities arise regularly. However, traps for the unwary do as well.

    In my latest DGS letter I outlined several sectors that may have potential during the month of March. (If you’d like to receive my emails please comment and I’ll set you up). As always, nothing in markets is guaranteed. But if conditions line up, these are areas I’m watching closely.

    • see video below

    Sectors on My Radar

    The sectors I believe could offer opportunity right now include:

    • Copper
    • Energy, particularly oil
    • Natural gas (possibly later)
    • Gold
    • Silver

    Gold remains what I call the old reliable among metals. It has served as a store of value for centuries and still has a place in portfolios today.

    Silver, however, is a different creature entirely. I sometimes refer to it as the merry widow of the metals. It can sit quietly for long periods and then move quickly when conditions change.

    Both are worth watching.

    Plan Your Profits Before You Make Them

    One lesson markets teach sooner or later is that everyone talks about buying, but very few people plan their selling.

    If you are fortunate enough to make profits, you should already know:

    • When you will take those profits
    • How much you intend to sell
    • What you plan to do with the money afterward

    If you don’t make those decisions ahead of time, the market will often make them for you.

    Planning before the moment arrives helps remove emotion from the process.

    A Little Reality About Market Mechanics

    It also pays to understand how markets actually function.

    Prices move constantly throughout the trading day. This is called intraday pricing, and those movements can be dramatic even when nothing has changed about the company itself.

    For example, suppose you bought Suncor at $56.75 and the price rises to $57.50. Feeling prudent, you place a stop order to sell if the price falls to $56.00.

    A brief dip during the day hits that level and your shares are sold.

    Later that same day the stock climbs to $58.00.

    You’re out of the stock, and someone else now owns it.

    Those quick intraday price movements are simply part of the market environment. They can surprise investors who don’t realize how quickly prices fluctuate.

    Keeping Your Strategy Private

    Because of this, I generally follow a simple principle.

    I don’t like broadcasting my sell prices.

    Instead I keep my price ranges in my head and make decisions when the time feels right. Others prefer automated orders through their brokers. Both approaches can work — but investors should understand the mechanics behind them.

    My Personal Investing Style

    Over time I have settled into a fairly straightforward approach.

    I stay away from:

    • Options
    • Futures
    • Crypto speculation

    The closest I come are ETFs, sometimes leveraged ones.

    In general, I prefer owning real companies within real sectors.

    I think of it a bit like a bowl of M&M’s. Instead of betting everything on one piece, I hold several companies within the same sector.

    The Rule That Matters Most

    After all the charts, analysis, and commentary, there is one rule that matters more than any other:

    Tailor your behaviour to your temperament.

    Some people are comfortable with risk. Others prefer steadier ground.

    Your strategy should match who you are. If your investments keep you awake at night, you are probably taking on more risk than suits you.

    Markets have a way of humbling everyone eventually. Old timers like me often say:

    “You ain’t seen nothing yet.”

    And that may be the most honest observation of all.

    **********

    Grannie Doll Reflection:
    Nick and I often approach our work from different directions. He comes from decades of market observation. I draw from the rhythms of everyday life. Yet both paths seem to arrive at the same wisdom: plan carefully, stay steady, and know yourself well.

  • The Hardest Part of Investing

    scroll down for the video

    We talk a lot about buying.

    We talk about “breakouts,” and “opportunities,” and “the next big thing.”
    We talk about where the market is going — and what might go up.

    But there is a quieter, harder, and far more important question that rarely gets the same attention:

    When should you sell?

    Because buying may feel like investing —
    but selling is where investing becomes real.

    The Contract We Don’t Like to Talk About

    Every investment is, at heart, an aleatory contract.
    A wager with uncertainty built into its bones.

    You place your capital into the hands of time, chance, and discipline. You hope that you will recover more than you put in.

    Sometimes you do.
    Sometimes you don’t.

    Gerald Loeb once answered the question “When should one invest?” with perfect simplicity:

    “When you have the funds.”

    But the more honest — and more difficult — question comes later:

    When do you step off the ride?

    The Market Whispers First

    Markets do not shout their warnings.

    They whisper.

    Long before a company admits trouble.
    Long before headlines change their tone.
    Long before fear reaches the crowd.

    The stock already knows.

    And it shows that knowledge quietly — through price, momentum, and trend.

    Listening to the Numbers

    A good place to begin is what I call the three S’s:

    Sector.
    Is the broader sector still being invited forward — or is it beginning to stall?

    Selection.
    Is your specific stock still leading — or simply drifting?

    Sentiment.
    Is capital still flowing in — or quietly stepping back?

    These are not predictions.
    They are observations.
    And observations are the bedrock of discipline.

    Trend Is the Market’s Honest Voice

    Trend has guided traders for more than a century — not because it is clever, but because it is honest.

    Trend is commonly measured using moving averages and MACD — tools that smooth noise and reveal direction.

    When price begins slipping beneath its averages…
    When averages roll over…
    When MACD crosses the zero line…

    The market is speaking plainly.

    It is not angry.
    It is not dramatic.
    It is simply changing its mind.

    And it is inviting you to notice.

    The Comfort Warning

    There is another signal — quieter, but equally reliable.

    It is the moment when your investment feels good.
    So good that you speak of it easily.
    So good that confidence becomes comfort.

    That warm, settled feeling has marked more dangerous ground than any chart ever has.

    My best buys usually felt uncertain.
    My worst holds usually felt cozy.

    The market rewards discipline — not attachment.

    Where Profit Is Really Made

    There is no perfect signal.
    No flawless indicator.
    No method that removes uncertainty.

    But trend, momentum, and disciplined observation form a compass that quietly protects capital — and lets profit breathe.

    You do not make money when you buy.

    You make money when you sell —
    calmly, carefully, and without emotion.

    Let the numbers speak.
    Let discipline lead.
    And never confuse comfort with safety.

    — DenaliGuide

  • “THE COAST IS CLEAR!”

    © Denaliguide 2025

    There are few phrases that soothe a speculator’s nerves like:
    “The coast is clear.”

    Those words promise smooth sailing right as you’re about to embark on a venture. This venture could hurt you badly if not done with care. And sometimes you find out pretty quickly whether that phrase was truth… or wishful thinking.

    I pick a lot of stocks. Some work out beautifully. Some take a hammer to my confidence. And after a few too many blows to the head courtesy of Mr. Market, a question finally lodged itself between my ears:

    “What am I planning for the stocks I buy after I buy them?”

    Not why I like them. Not the story.
    The plan.

    So here goes.

    When the Coast Seems Clear

    Every now and then, you enter a trade that behaves exactly as you hoped. The trend is friendly, the movement is steady, and the progress feels like getting daily base hits. You accept that the stock is in an uptrend, and you allow the facts—not your euphoria—to guide you.

    That’s when the phrase “the coast is clear” seems to be true.
    But here’s the twist:

    Even when everything goes right, you still need a plan.

    Because without an exit strategy, even winning trades can turn into headaches. Being right isn’t enough—you need to know what you’re doing with that correctness.

    When the Coast Is Foggy, Swampy, or Full of Crocs

    Then there are the trades that look promising but never deliver.

    The ones where you say things like:

    • “It has potential.”
    • “It might turn around.”
    • “Maybe next week.”

    That kind of thinking is hope.
    And hope is the most expensive tool in the toolbox if it’s all you’re relying on.

    You enter early without a written plan. You assume the best. Then the stock cuts itself in half within weeks, repaying your faith. Now you’re stuck asking two painful questions:

    1. How long do I wait for improvement?
    2. At what point do I admit error and exit?

    If you didn’t decide those things before buying, you’re now making decisions under stress—never ideal.

    The Awkward Middle: Not Winning, Not Losing

    Some trades sit right on the horns of the dilemma.
    Not rising enough to justify excitement.
    Not falling enough to justify panic.

    Just drifting.

    This is where measurable expectations help. You can look at average movement, recent performance, or your own time-based criteria and say:

    “If this position can’t show signs of life within X days or weeks, I reevaluate.”

    That simple discipline keeps you from babysitting weak trades indefinitely.

    Why Bother With All of This?

    Because getting into a trade is easy.
    Getting out—with your money intact—is the hard part.

    And that’s why you must ask:

    • Was this according to my plan?
    • Did I even have a plan?
    • Did I buy it simply because it felt like the “coast was clear”?

    Too often, “the coast is clear” is just code for:
    “I didn’t think this through.”

    I won’t give you quotes from Sun Tzu or fictional generals sitting in tents. It all boils down to the simplest of questions:

    What are you going to do with the fish once it’s in the boat?

    Successful speculation in anything—rice, copper, coal, stocks—requires reverse engineering your plan:

    • What must be true before you buy?
    • What must happen after you buy to justify holding?
    • When do you take profit?
    • When do you accept a mistake and walk away?

    And perhaps most importantly:

    Is the coast actually clear, or are you just hoping it is?

    The Transaction Sheet: Your Lifeline

    You can simplify everything by creating a Transaction Sheet you fill out before you make the trade.

    The two most important pieces:

    1. WHY BUY?

    Your thesis, in plain language.
    If you can’t explain it quickly, you likely don’t understand it well enough.

    2. WHY or WHEN TO EXIT?

    Decide this before emotions get involved.
    It will save your wallet and your sanity.

    Then add the housekeeping:

    • Stock name
    • Shares
    • Price in
    • Price out
    • Profit target
    • Maximum acceptable loss
    • Time expectations
    • Any red flags to watch

    Those boring details? They are the backbone of successful speculation.

    Your Four Allies in the Market

    When the noise gets loud and the market gets fast, these are the friends you can rely on:

    • WHY’s — Why you enter, why you exit
    • WHEN — Timing and conditions
    • DUE DILIGENCE — The work you did before risking a dime
    • HOUSEKEEPING — The numbers that keep you honest

    Get those right, and suddenly the coast isn’t just “clear”—
    it’s mapped, measured, and monitored.

    And that’s the difference between guessing…
    and surviving long enough to succeed.

    From the Denali ridges to the market edges—step sure, think clean, trade wise.

    Nick aka Denaliguide